However, this growth has been accompanied by a sharp escalation in risk - particularly cargo theft - which continues to place significant strain on supply chains, insurers and operators alike.

• SAPS crime statistics indicate that 420 trucks were hijacked in the second quarter of 2025 alone.
• Over an 18-month period to June 2022, the TAPA EMEA Intelligence System (TIS) recorded 2,670 cargo theft incidents across all nine provinces, with losses totalling approximately R577 million (€31.7 million).

At the same time, South Africa’s rapid e-commerce expansion has fundamentally changed the risk profile of the logistics sector. According to World Wide Worx, online retail reached R71 billion in 2023, representing a 29% year-on-year increase, and is expected to exceed R100 billion by 2026. This surge has increased the volume of high-value, fast-moving goods on the road, making courier and delivery vehicles increasingly attractive targets for both organised criminal syndicates and opportunistic offenders.

Key cargo theft trends shaping the South African landscape

Cargo theft in South Africa is increasingly sophisticated and coordinated. Four major trends are driving the risk environment:

• Advanced criminal tactics: Syndicates frequently impersonate law enforcement using blue lights to force vehicles to stop, deploy GPS-jamming technology to disable tracking systems and use fraudulent documentation to collect goods from warehouses.
• Insider enablement: Access to schedules, routes and cargo details through compromised or corrupt employees remains a critical enabler.
• Cyber-enabled theft: Phishing, social engineering and system intrusions are being used to intercept digital load data, manipulate dispatch instructions and exploit weak cyber controls within logistics platforms.
• Infrastructure vulnerability: Persistent cable theft continues to disrupt rail freight operations, shifting additional volume onto already constrained road networks and increasing exposure to road-based crime.

Frequently targeted commodities reflect both resale demand and ease of distribution. These include FMCG products such as food and beverages, alcohol and consumer electronics, as well as metals, vehicle components and pharmaceuticals.

The consequences of cargo theft extend well beyond the immediate loss of goods. Businesses face higher insurance premiums, supply chain delays, contractual penalties and reputational damage. For drivers, the personal toll is significant, with hijackings often involving violence or the threat thereof. At a macro level, persistent cargo crime undermines investor confidence and places additional pressure on an already constrained logistics ecosystem.

Mitigating Cargo Theft

Effectively addressing cargo theft in South Africa requires a shift away from isolated or purely physical controls towards an integrated, intelligence-led and technology-enabled approach. Traditional mitigation strategies - often focused on documentation checks or basic tracking - are no longer sufficient against syndicates that combine insider knowledge, cyber intrusion and physical force. Mitigation efforts must therefore be directly aligned to the realities of the local threat landscape.

A logistics risk profile assessment is the critical starting point. Once vulnerabilities are identified, organisations should adopt a holistic, layered security strategy that recognises the interdependence of people, processes, technology and infrastructure.

Key focus areas include:

1. Leveraging technology to counter sophisticated tactics
   Given the use of GPS jamming, impersonation and document fraud, organisations should deploy resilient digital solutions such as multi-factor authentication, encrypted digital identity verification and AI-enabled anomaly detection. Blockchain-based transaction records can further enhance cargo legitimacy and traceability, provided systems are regularly audited and cyber-secured.
2. Strengthening vetting to address insider risk
   Robust, continuous vetting of employees, contractors and supply-chain partners is essential. This includes real-time verification of carriers, drivers, vehicles and documentation at both collection and delivery points. Processes should be dynamic rather than static, recognising that insider threats evolve over time.
3. Enhancing real-time visibility along high-risk corridors
   Advanced tracking solutions - including geo-fencing, tamper-evident seals and layered tracking devices should be prioritised on known hotspot routes such as the N3 and N4. Continuous monitoring must be supported by trained response teams capable of rapid escalation when trigger events occur.
4. Embedding cyber resilience into logistics operations
   As cyber-enabled theft increases, logistics platforms and dispatch systems must be treated as critical infrastructure. Regular penetration testing, employee cyber-awareness training and participation in intelligence-sharing forums can materially reduce exposure to digital compromise.
5. Aligning insurance cover with real risk exposure
   Insurance solutions should extend beyond cargo value alone to include recovery costs, business interruption and cyber-related losses. Policies must reflect the organisation’s specific operating profile, geographic exposure and risk mitigation maturity, avoiding exclusions that could undermine cover at the point of loss.

While upfront investment may be challenging in a low-margin environment, the long-term benefits of improved resilience, reduced loss frequency and enhanced insurability can deliver meaningful returns. Importantly, visible commitment to risk management sends a positive signal to insurers operating in a constrained and increasingly selective market.

By Natalie Cooper, senior marine and aviation broker at Aon South Africa